The Middle East is often referred to as the "cradle of civilization" for being the location of several ancient civilizations and cultures such as Babylonia, Persia, Israel and Egypt. The checkered history of the region is marked with the collapse of empires and almost perpetual conflicts. The major changes that have altered the importance of the Middle East are oil, the Suez Canal, and transnational terrorism. Oil especially is critical in fuelling the infrastructures of a majority of the world's nations; this is the reasoning for why most nations have diplomatic relations with the Middle East. The last one hundred years have seen outside influences play a profound role in the region including the Ottoman Empire and the neocolonial precedent 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement. World War I effectively ended the Turkish influence in the Levant and made way for the creation of "countries" that reflected European sphere of influence interests across the Middle East. New countries were cr
eated to serve these foreign interests and gave virtually no attention to the demographic, tribal and religious realities on the ground. Counterterrorism courses and intelligence management studies either were non-existent or ignored regarding future consequences of the European decisions of geography and politics.
Middle East oil has cemented the interests of foreign countries in maintaining their influence in the region. Europe sowed seeds of future local strife and international problems by its arbitrary creation of the nation-states of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Israel/Palestine. The aftermath of World War II saw the waning of Europe's power in the diminishing of the physical presence of their military forces and the rise of the "strongman" dictatorial governments which were necessary to maintain a semblance or stability and order. For over fifty years, this stability allowed oil and commerce to transit the Suez Canal despite Arab-Israeli wars and violent upheavals like the Lebanon Civil War and the Iranian Revolution. The various monarchies and dictators maintained this stability through tyrannical rule and corruption. Then came "The Arab Spring." Rulers and governments fell like the nursery rhyme Humpty-Dumpty and counterterrorism courses and intelligence management studies struggl
ed to respond to the unexpected and unintended consequences. The flawed institutions and fragile stabilities held in place by ruthless rulers using raw power are in the process of being destroyed and replaced in most cases by internecine fighting, civil conflicts and latent chaos. A country by country survey shows a resurgence of transnational terrorist influence; civil war exists in Syria, Yemen, and is incipient in Lebanon and Iraq; the religious confrontations enter a new level of violence with Shiite-Sunni conflicts and Sunni-Sunni violence; and old animosities are complicated and intensified as tribes, clans and religious forces across the region strive for influence and survival including a possible Middle East nuclear weapons arms race. The levels of uncertainties and potential future dangers are unprecedented.
The first security question any country must address is what threats pose an existential danger to the nation. The next question is what are the threats that pose grave dangers to the nation? The risk hierarchy continues to set an intelligence baseline for national security policies. The Arab world that the West has known for fifty years is breaking apart and "cannot be put back together again" as these new geostrategic-political and militaristic threats are coming forth.
The US challenge is now to build new counterterrorism courses and intelligence management studies that transform the intelligence data into intelligence information and knowledge. This challenge faces public and private entities that deal in security issues and security education. The global consequences of failing to meet the challenge are dire.
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Dan Sommer works for Henley-Putnam University, a leading educational institution in the field of Strategic Security. For more info on Henley-Putnam University, counterterrorism courses, intelligence management studies, call 888-852-8746 or visit us online at http://www.Henley-Putnam.edu
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